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extreme-os

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Hypothetical Monthly Results

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2005       +1.8%+24.9%+5.5%+8.5%+2.8%+13.3%+7.9%+7.6%+16.1%+3.2%+11.0%
2006+10.7%+4.9%+15.3%+3.3%+11.7%+1.2%+12.2%+8.6%+3.4%+3.3%+4.7%+4.4%
2007+10.0%+2.2%+1.2%(4%)+11.1%(3.9%)+3.1%+4.3%+4.2%+13.9%(7.6%)+11.0%
2008+12.0%+12.6%(10.4%)+7.7%+9.5%+0.1%+13.4%+7.6%+13.2%(26.3%)(15.7%)+5.5%
2009(9.3%)(12.1%)(5.1%)+10.5%+5.5%(1.1%)+7.4%+0.9%(2.3%)+1.1%+3.8%+3.9%
2010(7.9%)+8.6%                                                            

 
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Show chart:  Standard  |  Monte Carlo  |  Personalized
Technical Analysis:  Moving Average daysX

Instruments Stocks
Strategies Technical analysis, Market timing
System started 2/17/2005 (61 months ago)
System developer Extreme Trading Contact
(Last login to C2: 2/8/10 9:32)



Recently Closed Trades

CSV Show AutoTrade DataDetails

Note: system has an open, losing position which is not being displayed to non-subscribers.

Opened ET B/S # Symbol   Price Closed Price Risk P/L
2/5/10 14:53 BUY 800 FLR 42.30 2/8 11:38 43.21 n/a $728
2/5/10 13:44 BUY 1,000 BUCY 48.05 2/8 10:53 52.65 n/a $4,600
1/28/10 15:37 BUY 1,000 SINA 37.56 2/3 15:15 37.46 Normal ($100)
2/1/10 12:17 BUY 1,000 IDXX 49.80 2/3 14:20 50.69 Low $890
1/21/10 10:56 BUY 800 DB 66.48 2/2 10:32 65.72 Normal ($608)
1/27/10 14:46 BUY 1,000 X 46.39 2/2 10:01 47.48 Normal $1,090
1/29/10 12:21 BUY 1,000 QSII 53.50 2/1 12:17 53.94 Normal $440
1/28/10 15:40 BUY 800 FCX 69.56 1/29 10:23 70.75 Low $952
1/20/10 15:29 BUY 1,000 GG 38.15 1/28 15:39 35.83 Normal ($2,320)
1/20/10 11:31 BUY 800 NILE 55.28 1/28 15:36 53.47 Normal ($1,448)
1/22/10 11:06 BUY 1,000 KLAC 31.98 1/27 15:16 30.54 Low ($1,440)
1/19/10 15:43 BUY 1,200 MED 20.74 1/25 9:51 20.92 Normal $216
1/15/10 15:20 BUY 1,000 KLAC 33.50 1/21 10:01 33.78 Low $280
1/14/10 15:42 BUY 800 SXCI 47.88 1/19 11:59 50.01 Normal $1,704
1/12/10 11:25 BUY 1,000 DTSI 28.77 1/13 9:42 29.94 n/a $1,170

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Statistics

Analytics  
Trades1,674
# Profitable1,146 (68.5%)
# months tracked60
Profitable months49 (81.7%)
Avg trade duration2.6 days
Annual return (compounded)60.4%
Average win$424
Average loss$750
Profit factor1.3:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)55.45%
drawdown periodSept 24, 2008 to March 09, 2009
Correlation w/ S&P0.405
Sharpe ratio1.279
C2Realism Factor 68%
Keep after worst-case slippage 72.3%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss48.8%
Chance of 20% account loss31.0%
Chance of 30% account loss11.6%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)0.16
Average P/L per unit traded$0.06
Sum of dividends and cash expir. in model account$7,216


Reviews

See All
 
March 15, 2009 from AutoTrader

I recently unsubscribed after trading the system a couple of years. I still managed to make about 50% over that time, but it was close to 100% at the peak. When I first subscribed the vendor used to exit losing positions after 2 days. Now he hangs on to losers for months at a time -- a recipe for disaster...especially in this market. The other reason for the poor performance is simply the market meltdown since October. There were just too many falling knives and not enough stocks that bounced. If this market ever returns to normal I expect this system will do well again, but my money is in long/short systems for now.

 
March 15, 2009 from AutoTrader

Can someone please elaborate on what happened to this system after 9/24/08? It just became an hungry beast, eating away at our capital and destroying years of progressive accumulation. Now, 6 months (and $600 in fees) later, 56% of capital is gone, and there is no sign of recovery in sight. If you're still in, one word: RUN!

 
Nov 23, 2007 from AutoTrader

I think extreme-os was good in 2005-2006. I agree with Low realism factor with commissions. Since January after slippage and commissions lost -15% of account. This system good in C2 records only. Vendor decided don't change system until will have negative year. Result,- extremaly high drawdown and volatility not typical for this system.

 
Aug 8, 2007 from AutoTrader

Autotraded: July/August2007 This system doesn't seem to work in a volatile market. Never lost so much in such a short time. Very dangerouse even for my risk tolerance.

 
Aug 2, 2007 from AutoTrader

Seems very rule based system, but pay little attention to current news. Do not avoid events like quarterly earning reports, risks are often high. High percent of good picks but some are low volume stock, very high slippages with AutoTrade (surge orders). Cut loss quick (2 days) but had no stop nor hedging protections. Stable curve but stats are rosier than real at C2. Good system before 2007, but timing are off often in recent 6 months. Net loss to date since Oct 2006.

 
July 9, 2007 from Subscriber

After two years as a subscriber, I am finally throwing in the towel on this system. Down 10% this year on real fills (as opposed to C2 fantasy fills). Had a decent January, but since then, even in this bull market, the system has stopped working.

 
June 21, 2007 from AutoTrader

What is going on? BTO 6,000 NTY 42.26 6/19/07 10:19 0 40.48 (09:32t) ($126,779) He only had 700K and he LOST ($10,680) so far? BTO 10,000 FLML 23.33 6/19/07 15:10 0 0.00 (17:14t) ($116,649) And of that original 700K, he also lost ($233,300)? BTO 5,000 CHKE 40.81 6/20/07 13:16 0 0.00 (16:13t) ($102,025) And likewise Collective2 says he lost another ($204,050)? This much is real--I had $25000 last week, middle, when I turned autotrading and now I am down 6% already. I have shutdown autotrading in emergency until Collective2's computers and Extreme_os get back up and working like it used to.

Rebuttal, posted on June 24, 2007 by Matthew Klein:

Obviously the reviewer is unable to differentiate from a losing trade (which he experienced, as did other subscribers to the system), and a Collective2 quote feed problem, where C2 erroneously displayed that the price of a stock was zero (and thus it displayed a very large loss). Of course in his real trading account, the subscriber's stock did not go down to zero, but he did seem to freak out and pull the plug on trading this system. It's worth noting that this system has experienced similar (though fortunately rare) drawdowns of approximately the same magnitude before, which the reviewer could see from the system's historical trading record.
 
June 3, 2007 from AutoTrader

Very consistent, long history, small drawdowns, but a lot of slippage. http://scitra.blogspot.com

 
Jan 29, 2007 from AutoTrader

I trade the EOS system exclusively in an IRA account I have at IB. That account rose in value by 60% in 2006 and I am off to a good start in 2007 (up 5% in January). You won't make the 160%/year that C2 reports due to the sizeable slippage, but the system is very consistent and one that I plan to keep trading for a long time.

 
Jan 26, 2007 from Subscriber

System trades very thinnly traded stocks and fills are harder to come by. In the real world it is a very hard system to trade. You can see the hold and hope factor is very high .36. In a practical world of trading no wonder the system has realism factor of only 67. Slippage is very high and growing, 167% annual return is dream in real life.

 
Oct 17, 2006 from Subscriber

If you're serious about trading using a robust, rules based approach, this system is definitely worth considering. I've been a trader for a long time and I have my own methodology, but having followed extreme-os for some time revealed a few things that I have not noticed in the markets until I tried the system. While a lot of customers complain about bad or impossible fills due to volume/liquidity, the actual concept that underlies the system is very sound. My recommendation is to follow this system and pay attention not to "what" but to "how". If you just want to shadow extreme-os you'll do ok. But if you understand how it works and tie these principles into your own trading you'll do exceptionally well.

 
Sept 28, 2006 from AutoTrader

Beautiful system, but fill sare fantasy. Real world lost money autotrading in a strong month for the system. Look at the thin spreads of most trades and you'll see a little slippage on each side and the profit is gone.

 
Aug 28, 2006 from AutoTrader

I have subscribed to the system since 05/18/2006 and been auto-trading it from the beginning. So far, I am almost break-even after the slippage and commission/subion. Although the market has been tough for the last three months or so, this system, to my impression, performed better in a monkey market than in a clear upwards/downwards trend market because it is trying to catch the short-term bottom. Overall, I feel this system is just OK, definitely not as good as that shown in the equity curve.

 
May 26, 2006 from AutoTrader

After subscribing to this system for more than six months, I finally gave up. This strategy should work for vendor, but not for followers because of huge slippage. Look at the intraday chart, you will know what I mean.

 
May 16, 2006 from AutoTrader

Subscribed since beginning of April, down over 6%. I'm going to hang in for a few more weeks to see if it gets any better.

 
May 16, 2006 from Subscriber

Tried it for a month. Break-even after slippage and commissions.

 
March 14, 2006 from AutoTrader

I use only this system for my IRA (no margin) trading account and it is up 13.5% since the first of the year. Maybe this is a little less than the simulated return due to slippage and an occassional missed trade, but I don't care -- it is still a lot higher return than I am getting from any of my mutual funds.

 
March 14, 2006 from Subscriber

I think these are great entry points. I use the ATM. I dont care if I get 10 cents slippage because sometimes I get 10 cents the other way. Sometimes I will miss a trade and I end up buying at a lower price before a runup. . I dont trade the equities with extremely low volume because it is not realistic to be able to exit quickly. It seems that if you have some basic trading knowledge that you can use this system to your advantage. I am up 25% on margin since January 1.

 
Feb 28, 2006 from AutoTrader

Getting stated fills is impossible to achieve. I agree with the low Realism Factor. Count on 10-30 cents slippage on sell side of each position, slightly less on the buy side, so you have to adjust the results accordingly to get an accurate picture. I am now using Autotrader and still experience 20-30 cents slippage on fills on BOTH sides. Had a 50 cent slip this am! This changes the results dramatically. The record is ..... to be taken with a grain of salt. Finally decided to cancel, traded this for 3 months with autotrader and bottom line is I made no money.

 
Jan 30, 2006 from Subscriber

After using this service for 2 months, I finally decide to unsubscribe it. Using above $80K for every trade is not something I can do all the time while the fills are usually hard to be completed. In addition, I realize gradually that capturing a falling knife is not a style that fits me well.

 
Jan 28, 2006 from AutoTrader

The slippage on this system averaged .066 per trade. The return per annum in real life trading is about 40%. Your fills will average about 75% of what's posted on C2. The 200% return shown does not consider that the trader has to have 5 times the amount in reserve. That being said, it's a system with very low drawdowns, and not many mutual funds will return this kind of percentage. Maybe C2 could readejust the math for these type systems to figure the % return based on total dollars one needs to use the system.

 
Jan 10, 2006 from AutoTrader

A very good system. With Tradebullet, I achieve similar results to those posted here. Incredible Performance so far with few drawdowns.

 
Dec 14, 2005 from Subscriber

I have been a subscriber for a short period and use the ATM to receive trade signals. Like other comments here I find the posted fills a fantasy. I am extemely attentive and respond immediately to all Instant Messages but cannot come close to achieving the posted fills. The entry points are very good and scaled orders may be appropriate.

 
Nov 29, 2005 from AutoTrader

I have been a subscriber for many months and, using AutoTrading, receive fills that are almost identical to the fills posted on C2. Unlike some other systems, the system owner seems conservative, doesn't take huge risks, and has created a very good system. Highly, highly recommended!

System Description

Visit www.extremetradinginc.com for further description.

- This system description was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.

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$100 per monthDetails

Subscriptions cost $100 per month. (That is, we will charge you every 30 days - not when the month name on the calendar changes. So it's okay to sign up towards the end of a calendar month. You'll still get a full 30 days.)



Overview

We buy oversold stocks and sell most positions within the next 2 days.

- This overview was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.

Model Account Status

Started$10,000
Buy Power$58,728
Cash$66,964
Equity($8,236)
Cumulative $*$97,936
Total System Equity$107,936
Margined$0
Open P/L($8,236)


Crowd Opinion

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